Credit Rating Agencies in the Face of the War in Ukraine

The aim of this study was to find evidence whether the ratings prior Russia’s reinvasion Ukraine in 2022 reflected geopolitical risks, and if rating actions taken response aggression accurately informed financial market participants conflict’s spillover impacts, transmitting them credit risk assessment. indicate a considerable shock from underestimation political risks Russia, including autocracy risks. pattern differed those invasion 2014, also varied used over past two decades during outbreak crises with underlying economic drivers. CRAs signalled high level uncertainty which may involve necessary shift ‘point-in-time’ ratings, as ‘through-the-cycle’ could have little relevance due lasting risk.